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Wednesday, June 30, 2010

How Low Can the S&P 500 Go?

Technical analysts following the S&P 500 have a short answer: between 1000 and 1009. That's the lowest support level the broad index can hit without debunking the idea that stocks are recovering.

Read

Market Summary 6/30/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/30/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 9774.02 -96.28
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2109.24 -25.94
S&P 500 Close – 1030.71 -10.53

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/30/10

Gold Close - 1240.20
Oil Close – 74.78
Natural Gas – 4.62

The Dow drops 96 points in late-day, Stocks end the quarter with their biggest losses since the 2008 crash.

Business activity continues to expand in the Chicago region.
Crude oil fell 31 cents to $75.63 a barrel after falling to as low as $74.39.

Futures trading sees stocks opening lower on Thursday. The big news will be June sales for automakers.

At the same time, technically minded traders are worried because the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq all show classic head-and-shoulders patterns, which often lead to continued downturns.

Economic Data - 7/01/2010

U.S. jobless claims data are released. 8:30 a.m.
Car makers to report U.S. vehicle sales for June.

Time to rethink retirement age?

The conversation really now begins with a much broader engagement in terms of how we can help our clients draw out and define the vision of how they would like to get the most out of these years what is feasible in terms of their assets and the income they may have coming from Social Security and pensions.

The more flexibility and more choices they have, the more intense the need for advice is. We see with the older edge of the baby boomers that one-third of them are members of the sandwich generation where they still have some financial responsibilities for aging parents as well as for their own kids. There are a lot more dimensions and [it requires more than] the old strategy of finding out what they have saved, when they think they are going to retire, what their risk tolerance is and then just setting everything on autopilot.

What is the societal impact of this new approach to retirement, especially as older workers remain , or return to, the workforce?

Read

17 Trades Hedge Funds Are Making Right Now

What they're getting into, and What they're getting out of.

Read

Tuesday, June 29, 2010

Tesla CEO Goes From Zero To $672 Million In One Day

Tesla's shares closed at $23.89 in their first day of trading, a 40% lift from where they were initially priced.

This is great news for Tesla CEO Elon Musk who started the day flat broke (cash-wise).

Elon owns 28 million shares, which means he is now worth $672 million on this stake alone.


source: businessinsider

Market Summary 6/29/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/29/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 9870.30 -268.22
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2135.18 -85.47
S&P 500 Close – 1041.24 -33.33

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/29/10

Gold Close - 1242.00
Oil Close – 75.60
Natural Gas – 4.55

Stocks tumbled Tuesday, with the Dow falling as much as 326 points and the S&P hitting an 8-month low after a big drop in consumer confidence and signs of a bigger slowdown in the global economy.

The S&P 500's close was its lowest for 2010, but the index did rebound from a low of 1,035 to finish above 1,040, a very important support level.

Crude oil fell $2.31 to $75.94 a barrel. Gold moved up $3.80 to $1,242.40 an ounce.

If you wanted a bit of good news, Electric car maker Tesla Motors debuted on the Nasdaq under the ticker TSLA, rising 12% from its IPO price late Monday. The stock was up 40.5% to $23.89.

Futures trading late today suggests a soft open on Wednesday.

Economic Data - 6/30/2010

U.S. employment figures from ADP at 8:15 a.m.
Chicago PMI released at 10 a.m.

This Market's Just Too High

link

source:thestreet

Monday, June 28, 2010

Cramer - Why Obama Is Bad for Stocks

link

source : finance.yahoo

This World Is A Mess ..

This World Is A Mess Because All We Care About Is The Short Term

We all suffer from a remarkable degree of impatience. We live in a world of sound bites, and the sense of instant gratification permeates every corner of our society.
In my chosen field of money management, the expression "long term" is an endangered species.
Consider public policy, executive compensation, the manner in which we communicate and the investment business.

Public policy: Hard, thoughtful political decisions are discarded in favor of short-term and popular decisions. In the end, these decisions are usually more costly.
Executive compensation: Many of our business and investment managers have gotten away with a "heads I win, tails you lose" mentality over the past decade, and it nearly destroyed our financial system.

Communication: In our social lives and in the way we communicate, convenience, expediency and haste rule the day. Speed dating and texting have replaced romance and conversation. Even texts are abbreviated as we now tweet. (Literacy and SAT English scores must be on the descent!)
Investment business: Demands on short-term investment performance have intensified and have never been greater. Short-term decision making and trading (what I describe as worshiping at the altar of momentum) has increasingly trumped intelligent, analytical and thoughtful long-term investing.

In the business media, the staccato pace of CNBC's prime time "Fast Money" and "Mad Money" shows make them so popular, as do their Fast Messages and Lightning Rounds. ("Slow Money" and "Sane Money" would not make money for CNBC in today's world.)

Investors in mutual and hedge funds have become ever more conscious of short-term performance. As a result, few money managers have the luxury of "forever" as Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) investor base grants him. Indeed our investors' capital is now almost "call" money, as multiyear hedge fund lockups have morphed into monthly and quarterly redemption privileges for their investors.

In the final analysis, the question -- how are you doing this month? -- is short-sighted, bad for our country, bad for our investment performance and bad for our lives (and can put us in a pickle).

source: businessinsider

Market Summary 6/28/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/28/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10138.52 -5.29
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2220.65 -2.83
S&P 500 Close – 1074.57 0.00

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/28/10

Gold Close - 1238.20
Oil Close – 77.56
Natural Gas – 4.72

Stocks end slightly lower Monday as investors welcomed a slight increase in personal spending but remained on guard ahead of key economic reports due later this week.

Volume was quite light, particularly on the NY stock exchange.

Tobacco and gun stocks rise on two favorable Supreme Court rulings. The court strikes down part of the Sarbanes-Oxley anti-fraud law.

Sprint (S) gained 6% after President Obama signed a memorandum to expand the amount of broadband spectrum available for smartphones and other wireless devices.

Energy shares drop as oil falls, Crude oil was down 61 cents to $78.25 a barrel.

Future trading suggests the US market will open slightly lower on Tuesday!

Economic Data - 6/29/2010

Case-Shiller home price figures are released. 9 a.m.
U.S. consumer confidence data released. 10 a.m.

Sunday, June 27, 2010

Obama:I Promise to Cut the Deficit in Half By 2013

According to the AP, President Obama just promised to cut the US deficit in half as a percentage of GDP by 2013.

This is consistent with Obama's prior budget projections, and it would certainly be a start. Of course, it won't make a dent in the long-term problem.)

So can we get Congress to commit to that?

If so, we'd be a lot more supportive of additional near-term stimulus spending (which, otherwise, we think will just become long-term structural overspending).

link

source: businessinsider

Next Week's Economic Report

Monday:Personal income and spending, due Monday.

Tuesday: The Case-Shiller 20-city home index is expected to have risen 3.4% in April after rising 2.3% in March.

Consumer confidence, due Tuesday from the Conference Board.

Wednesday:In addition to the jobs reports, the Chicago PMI manufacturing report and the government's weekly oil inventories report are due.

Thursday: Auto sales for June, due Thursday.
Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Index for June, due Tuesday.Weekly jobless claims are due in the morning, along with the pending home sales index. Auto and truck sales for June are due through the day.

Friday: In addition to the big jobs report, factory orders are due from the Commerce Department. Orders are expected to have fallen 0.7% in May after rising 1.2% in April.

Federal Reserve Speak -- Translated

It's so easy to know where the economy is going. Just ask Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke! The only problem is understanding that he means when he answers the question. He doesn't always speak plainly -- in fact, in the grand tradition of Alan Greenspan, Fed officials always do their best to speak in riddles.
So let me help you. Here's the text of the statement issues after Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. I'll translate it into English for you, one sentence at a time.

FOMC: Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually.

ENGLISH: At least we're not in recession anymore. And I don't know about you, brother, but at least I've got a government job.
......

link

source: smartmoney

Saturday, June 26, 2010

技术上熊市定义..... (图)


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When "Boring" Means Risky

With the VIX at lofty levels, options traders worry that the potential dangers in the market outweigh the potential rewards.

When the VIX is high—and it recently hovered around a lofty 35—it's a sign of fear. It means people are buying puts, which let them sell a stock to someone at a certain price. And they certainly don't want to sell the stock because they think its price is going up.

Buying fear is a good trade, just as selling confidence is usually a good sale. Why? Extreme emotions often precede opposite crowd reactions.
...
link

source: barrons

Worried about the U.S. now?

Rosenberg: Here's 13 Signs The US Economy Has Hit A Brick Wall

More and more, it looks like bearish Gluskin-Sheff economist David Rosenberg could be vindicated..

The truth of the matter is that we are nowhere near the recovery agencies like the Federal Reserve told us we were at back in April. Retail sales are falling, the housing market isn't even close to being fully recovered, and the Philly Fed Index's last update was very weak.

link


Another one from
David Rosenberg: Yes, The DOW Could Drop To 5,000


Resistance prevailed. My sense is that the market will break to the downside, and for three reasons:

1. Even if a double dip is avoided, the market is not priced for a growth relapse.

2. The intense volatility in the major averages over the past three months is consistent with the onset of a bear phase.

3. Bob Farrell believes a test of the March 2009 lows is likely. I don’t think anyone is in a position to debate five decades of experience, not to mention his track record. Louise Yamada, a legend in her own right, not to mention the likes of Bob Prechter and Richard Russell, are on this same page. Notice how none of them work at a Wall Street bank.
...
link

source: businessinsider

Here Comes The Recession

We are halfway through the year (where did the time go?) and it is time to make some predictions about the last half of the year. This week we look at what the leading indicators are telling us, size up a new indicator, drop in on banking data, and do a whole lot more.

link

source:businessinsider

Friday, June 25, 2010

Relief Rally? Calm Before Storm?

Goldman,Citi, Regionals Rise Despite FinReg: Relief Rally? Calm Before Storm?

The collective response today to news that House and Senate Democrats reached agreement on historic reform of banking was basically a shrug: Goldman Sachs (GS) rose $4.68, or 3.5%, to $139.66, while big “supermarkets” such as Bank of America (BAC) were up, too, with BAC rising 40 cents, or 3%, to $15.42.
.....
Edward Mills, FBR Capital: The bill is not as bad as it looks, though tougher than expected in the final form. “We expect the finalization of the legislation will provide short-term relief for financials; however, we remain cautious about this legislations longer-term implications” given how many devils there are in regulatory details, writes Mills.

link

source: barrons

Good Summary on Economy

U.S. Growth Revised Down Again

The U.S. government revised downward for the second time its estimate of economic growth in the first quarter.

Gross domestic product, the total output of the nation's goods and services, rose at a 2.7% annual rate from the fourth quarter of last year, the Commerce Department reported. That was down from an original estimate of 3.2% in April and from May's downward revision to an estimate of 3%. It was also down from the fourth quarter, when GDP grew at an annual rate of 5.6%.
Consumer spending, a key engine of growth for the economy, was less robust than previously thought. Spending rose by 3.0%, down from a previous estimate of 3.5%. That revision suggested the economy had less momentum heading into the second quarter.

The report also showed that companies had built inventories by more in the first quarter than earlier estimated, suggesting that they may not have had to increase output by as much to meet demand in the second quarter.

"I don't think the report is terrible, but it's not as favorable as we thought," said Michael Feroli, an economist at J.P. Morgan. For the second quarter, which will end Wednesday, Mr. Feroli looks for GDP growth of 4%, but said Friday's report clouded that estimate. A survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal in early June showed that economists, on average, expected GDP to grow at a 3.6% annual rate in the second quarter.

On a positive note, first-quarter corporate profits were revised up, rising by 8% from a previously reported 5.5% increase. Year over year, earnings were up 34%. Many economists look to strong profit growth—which looks to have continued in the second quarter—to overcome hesitancy by many businesses to spend and hire.

Separately, the Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment climbed to 76.0 for June, compared with a preliminary reading of 75.5 made earlier in the month and 73.6 in May. The reading was the best since January 2008.

source:wsj

Market Summary 6/25/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/25/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10143.81 -8.99
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2223.48 +6.06
S&P 500 Close – 1076.76 +3.07

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/25/10

Gold Close - 1255.80
Oil Close – 78.86
Natural Gas – 4.86

The Dow lost 9 points, financial shares rallied Friday on relief that the new version of the Wall Street reform bill is less restrictive than had been expected, but the broader market was mixed at the end of a down week on Wall Street.

Bank stocks rise after negotiators agree to a financial reform bill.

Energy shares get a boost from Gulf of Mexico storm worries. Crude oil settled up 3.1% to $78.86 after hitting as high as $79.13 on the storm worries and helped a number of energy shares move ahead.

Market breadth was positive and volume was robust because of the rebalancing. On the NY Stock Exchange, volume of 2.56 billion shares. Nasdaq, volume of 5.14 billion shares.

What's worng with GE?

The Stock GE move down from 19.75 to here , 14.93.

and It could continue to goes down to 12 or 13.
Eventually it'll be a 25-30 dollar stock, but between now and then many of us have patience to waiting ...
It's an absolute heartbreaker stock.

Financial Reform...

What financial reform means for consumers, From Card Fees to Mortgages, a New Day for Consumers

At last, it’s settled.

After months of haggling, the terms of financial reform are set, so long as both houses of Congress vote to accept them in the coming days.

While elected officials spent much of their time working out the details of regulating complex derivatives and grappling with whether banks ought to make big bets with their own money, they also set a number of new rules that will directly affect consumers.

link

source : NYtimes

Thursday, June 24, 2010

F/ JWN/ GE

Our friends at Bespoke Investment Group this afternoon dropped a little letter to say that the firm had sold it’s shares of Ford (F) , Nordstrom (JWN) , and General Electric (GE) , the reason being “technical breakdowns and overall market weakness.”

This is a “model portfolio,” mind you. BIG say they’re going more into cash.

Ford shares are down 27 cents, or 2.5%, at $10.76, while Nordstrom is off $1.26, or 3.4%, at $35.58, and GE is off 23 cents at $15.16.

source: barron's blog

An Old Song -- Because I Love You



Chorus: Because I love you, love you
Love you, so don't let me down

If I swam the longest river just to call your name
If I said the way I feel for you would never change
Would you ever fool around

Well I'm sorry if it sounds kinda bad, just that
Worried, cuz' I'm so worried
that you let me down

Reason for Optimism

Truckers On A Roll: Freight Business Accelerating

If it seems like there are more trucks on the road these days, there are. Tavio Headley, an economist with the American Trucking Associations, says freight traffic has climbed steadily since late last year.

This April was almost 10 percent better than a year earlier, Headley says. The broad gauge the ATA uses to monitor the trucking industry has climbed back to where it was just before the recession.

Link

source: npr

She is so beautiful~

Ivanka Trump Was In Madison Square Park Today

See pictures,

Link

source: businessinsider

Market Summary 6/24/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/24/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10152.80 -145.64
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2217.42 -36.18
S&P 500 Close – 1073.69 -18.35

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/24/10

Gold Close - 1245.50
Oil Close – 76.74
Natural Gas – 4.75

Stocks lost around 145 points Thursday, as investors mulled mixed reports on the economy and a sell-off in bank shares as Wall Street reform talk move toward a close.

Declines were broad based, with 28 of 30 Dow issues falling. Financials fall on worries about the financial regulation bill.

The selling was set off initially by more worries about a default of Greek debt . That initially pushed the euro lower, and stocks fell across the board.

Crude oil closed up 16 cents to $76.51 a barrel.

Market breadth was negative and volume was pretty modest. On the NY Stock Exchange, losers beat winners three to one on volume of 1.26 billion shares.

Although futures trading suggests the market could open higher. The key will be the last hour of trading.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/25/10

U.S. GDP revision. 8:30 a.m.
KB Home to release quarterly results.

Worries Weight on Market

U.S. stocks slipped Thursday, weighed by financials as investors braced for legislators to wrap up negotiations on the financial overhaul bill expected to be finalized Thursday.

Link

Using ETFs to invest in Asian markets

Exchange-traded funds to gain exposure to China and Asia's emerging economies could make sense for some investors, if they're ready for bumpy markets that have recently endured violent boom-and-bust cycles, Japan's lost decade and currency crises.

Link

source: MarketWatch

The Dow Today !

3M Alcoa "American Express" AT&T "Bank of America" Boeing
Caterpillar Chevron "Cisco Systems" Coca-Cola DuPont
Exxon Mobil "General Electric" Hewlett-Packard "Home Depot"
IBM Intel "Johnson & Johnson" "JPMorgan Chase" "Kraft Foods"
McDonald’s Merck Microsoft Pfizer "Procter & Gamble"
"The Travelers Companies" "United Technologies" Verizon
"Wal-Mart Stores" "Walt Disney"

Did You Know?
— General Electric is the only stock in The Dow® today that was also included in the original 12. It was removed twice in the early years of the 20th century but both times was returned to the industrial average in subsequent component changes.
— For more than four months in the second half of 1914, The Dow® was not published. The New York Stock Exchange was closed because of World War I. It was feared that the instability caused by the war would cause the market to plummet.

— Throughout most of its history, the industrial average’s components have been chosen from among the stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, though there was never any rule in the index’s methodology that said an NYSE listing was a requirement for eligibility. It was not until November 1, 1999, that stocks from the Nasdaq Stock Market (Intel Corp. and Microsoft Corp.) were added to The Dow®.
— No component changes were made to the Dow Jones Industrial
AverageSM during the 1940s and the 1960s.
— The Dow’s greatest one-day percentage gain took place March 15,1933, well into the Depression. The index rose 15.34%, or 8.26 points, on that day. Its greatest percentage loss was on October 19, 1987—otherwise known as “Black Monday”—when the industrial average fell 22.61%, or 508.00 points.

The Dow Jones Milestones

The complete milestone history of the average appears in the table below:

DJIA Milestones


Milestone

  Date

 Time
1,000November 14, 197276 Years
2,000January 8, 198714 Years
3,000April 17, 19914 Years
4,000February 23, 19854 Years
5,000November 21, 19959 Months
6,000October 14, 199611 Months
7,000February 13, 19974 Months
8,000July 16, 19975 Months
9,000April 6, 19989 Months
10,000March 29, 199912 Months
11,000May 3, 19991 Month
12,000October 19, 20067 Years 5 Months
13,000April 25, 20076 Months
14,000July 17, 20073 Months

15,000




As you can see, the Dow took 76 years to hit its first milestone. But as each succeeding milestone came alone, it took less and less time to hit the next one, due to the fact that the higher the Dow is in a relative sense, the easier it is to jump 1000 points. For example, it went from 6000 to 7000 in only 4 months.

The Dow moved between 1000 and 11000 mostly during modern times. As the table indicates, most of the milestones happened during 1982-1999 bull market. But notice that a new milestone wasn't reached during 2000 and 2001. That fact alone tells you that the Dow either stalled or declined as the bear market of 2000 arrived.

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Interesting History of Stock Market

The past few years have proven that the world economy lives and dies on the success of major financial markets around the world.

Traders use sophisticated software to analyze trends, make predictions and purchases. There is one legendary trader, who made billions of dollars analyzing market trends.

His name was Munehisa Homma and the only thing he traded was rice. His billions in earnings are in today’s dollars and he may have known more about market analysis in the 1700s than our smartest people do now.

Link

Market Summary 6/23/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/23/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10298.44 +4.92
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2254.23 -7.57
S&P 500 Close – 1092.04 -3.27

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/23/10

Gold Close - 1234.00
Oil Close – 75.73
Natural Gas – 4.80

The stock market closed with a slight loss Wednesday after sales of new homes hit a record low and the Federal Reserve indicated that problems in Europe pose a threat to the U.S. economy.

The Federal Reserve left its key rates alone today, but the decision didn't cheer investors much.

New-home sales fell 32.7% in May to their lowest level since 1963. However,homebuilder stocks mostly rose after a recent slide. PulteGroup Inc. advanced 19 cents, to $9.05, while Toll Brothers Inc. rose 43 cents, to $17.49.

Energy stocks were among the market's losers. The shares fell with crude oil, off $1.13 to $76.72 a barrel.

Market breadth was negative. On the NY Stock Exchange, losers beat winners eight to seven on volume of 1.13 billion shares.

Futures trading suggests stocks will open lower on Thursday.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/24/10
U.S. Jobless claims. 8:30 a.m.
U.S. durable goods orders. 8:30 a.m.
iPhone 4 release

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Nice Article!

ETF Providers Look for an Edge

Over the past year, ETF providers and sponsors have taken increasingly bold steps in their attempts to make their products more attractive when compared to competitors. One of the more popular ways fund providers have attempted to achieve this goal has been to decrease the costs associated with holding the funds.

Link

source: thestreet

Good Things for GE

The blue-chip stock that is sometimes hot, and sometimes not, is heating up again after a major investor established a huge position.

With the stock around $16, an investor Monday bought 20,000 July $17 calls, which is the equivalent to two million shares of stock, according to MEB Options, an institutional brokerage firm based in Chicago.

Link

source: barrons

Market Summary 6/22/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/22/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10293.52 -148.89
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2261.80 -27.29
S&P 500 Close – 1095.31 -17.89

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/22/10

Gold Close - 1240.20
Oil Close – 77.21
Natural Gas – 4.71

The Dow fell 149 points, Stocks slipped, giving up earlier gains in a very choppy session amid a worse-than-expected existing home sales report and the latest on the European debt crisis. The s&p 500 closed below the 200 day moving average which is bearish.

Trading volume has been weak, reflecting both light summer activity and a lack of conviction on the part of buyers.

Energy stocks slide despite a federal judge's ruling that the administration goes too far in halting drilling permits. Crude oil was down 61 cents to $77.21 a barrel.

Fed are meeting Tuesday and Wednesday with an announcement expected Wednesday afternoon regarding interest rates and the economy.

Futures trading suggests the market will open up slightly on Wednesday.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/23/10

New Home Sales - 10:00am EST
Crude Oil Inventories - 10:30am EST

G20 Still Challenged By Global Imbalances...

G20 Still Challenged By Global Imbalances, Courtesy Of Europe

The world economy finally seems to be confidently out of a hole, but the growth engines pushing it forward look a lot like the ones that helped bring about the recent global financial crisis.

Since the recession, world leaders have stepped up efforts to make the global economy less dependent on debt-financed spending by U.S. consumers of Asian — mainly Chinese — goods, which many economists say played a key role in bringing about the worst economic shock in decades. Put simply, they have been trying to get consumers to spend less in the U.S. and more in China.

China’s weekend pledge to make its exchange rate more flexible shows that pressure from the U.S. and other Group of 20 major economies may be paying off. But any rise in value of the yuan, which makes Chinese exports more expensive for Americans and the rest of the world, is expected to be slow.

Link

source: wsj

China Rises the Bar, Dollar Sinks;

The Chinese have done it.

After signaling a more “flexible” foreign exchange policy for their currency on Saturday, the Republic today set a higher midpoint for the currency, a benchmark that allows the Yuan to trade higher against other world currencies. After the Yuan rose to 6.8275 per dollar on Monday, China’s government on Tuesday set the rate even higher, at 6.7980.

The new benchmark resulted in the currency appreciating to as high as 6.7900 per dollar, write Reuters’s Lu Jianxin and Jason Subler.

The US dollar is lower against the Yen this morning, at ¥90.62-64 per dollar, and so is the Euro, at ¥111.28. But the dollar’s got an edge on the Euro, at $1.2283.

The materials stocks that saw huge leaps yesterday are again enjoying a bounce, with Alcoa (AA) up 9 cents, or 0.8%, at $11.81, and US Steel (X) up 36 cents, or 0.8%, at $45.33. Miner BHP Billiton (BHP) is up 11 cents at $69.52.

The move hasn’t helped overall US equities, though, with the Dow futures off 1 point at 10,395. S&P 500 futures are off a point at 1,109.

source: barron's blogs

Monday, June 21, 2010

Great Read !

China's Yuan Policy Makes Fed Irrelevant

When the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meets Wednesday, no one expects it to raise the federal funds rate -- the overnight bank rate that now hovers below 0.25%. However, businesses, politicians and prognosticators are eager, perhaps inappropriately so, to hear clues about when it will begin raising short-term interest rates to a more normal level.

Link

source: thestreet

Market Summary 6/21/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/21/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10442.41 -8.23
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2289.09 -20.71
S&P 500 Close – 1113.20 -4.31

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/21/10

Gold Close - 1239.70
Oil Close – 77.55
Natural Gas – 4.86

Stocks finished lower Monday, with the Dow industrials erasing a gain of as much as 143 points, as investors chose to be cautious after a recent advance and discounted China's move to strengthen its currency.

The euro fell against the dollar. That decline beat up a rally in commodities and commodity stocks. And the broad averages slumped.

BP were down 45% to 30.33 after the company said the cost of its oil spill has reached $2 billion.

Crude oil was up 64 cents to $77.82 a barrel. Gold closed down $17.60 to $1,240.70 an ounce.

Market breadth was negative. On the NY Stock Exchange, losers beat winners four to three on volume of 1.07 billion shares.

Futures trading suggests a modestly higher open.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/22/10

Existing Home Sales - 10am EST
FOMC Meeting Begins

Las Vegas Real Estate Worst Hit

Like 70 percent of Las Vegas homeowners who are upside-down on home values, anyone who bought raw land in the last decade as an investment is probably thinking about letting it go back to the bank, if they haven’t already done so.

Distressed land sales have become the standard in Las Vegas, resetting price levels to 10 or more years ago and influencing appraisers to be ultraconservative with their valuations.

Link

source: lvrj.com

Inflation or deflation?

For the last year and a half my assessment has been that the near-term pressures on the U.S. economy were deflationary, while long-term fundamentals involve significant inflation risks. It's time for a look at the data that have come in over the last 6 months, and time to say that I still see things exactly the same way.

Link

source: econbrowser.com

Sunday, June 20, 2010

Perfect Patterns

Source:www.daytradingradio.com
By: DayTraderRockStar

Next Week's Economic Report

Monday: N/A

Tuesday: The existing home sales index from the National Association of Realtors is due in the morning.

Wednesday: The May new home sales index from the Census Bureau is due shortly after the start of trading.
The weekly crude oil inventories report from the government is also due in the morning.

Thursday: The Commerce Department releases the durable goods orders report for May in the morning.

The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment is expected to have fallen to 458,000 last week from 472,000 the previous week.

Oracle (ORCL) reports quarterly results Thursday evening.

Friday: The revised reading on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter is due in the morning. GDP is expected to have grown at a 3% annualized rate, unchanged from the previous reading.

Saturday, June 19, 2010

Obama Sends Letter To G20 Leaders

link


Obama Sends Letter To G20 Leaders Begging Them To Keep The Stimulus Pump Going

source: businessinsider

Stock Markets (Positives /Negatives)

link

U.S. stock market has multiple reasons to go either way

Positives

•Successful 10-year and 30-year Spanish bond auctions

•Subsequent drop in yields in Spain after prior spike

•Talk that Banco Santander SA (STD 11.53, +0.26, +2.31%) and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA 11.50, +0.52, +4.74%) are standouts in their stress tests

•Spanish IBEX index closed at highest since mid-May

•S&P 500 rallied above 200-day moving average

•Benign inflation readings in Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index

Negatives

•Housing starts-permits weak, tax-credit hangover

•National Association of Home Builders survey well below expectations

•Philly Fed survey below expectations (New York in line)

•Initial jobless claims remain stubbornly high

•Shanghai index closes at a low of the week and just 2 points from lowest since April 2009

炒股的九个阶段--看看你是哪个阶段?[ZT]

第一个阶段:指入市不久,只会买卖操作,股票的基础知识都还不懂的菜鸟;

第二个阶段:在股市操作过一段时间,对股市的术语基本了解,也看过一些股票书籍,但自己观点不多,多买卖别人推荐的股票;

第三个阶段:经过股市模爬,开始不相信别人的观点,开始有自己的观点,但在牛市也获利不多,熊市亏损严重;

第四个阶段:开始深刻反思,深入学习,慢慢地能分析个股,发现热点,判断主力情况,但有时感觉模棱两可,还是亏损得多,获利得少;

第五个阶段:能初步判断个股有无主力,也能选出大牛股,但获利一般不多就换股了,能把握热点,但操作频繁,还没有学会空仓的重要性,在牛市能有较大的获利,其它时候还是亏损;

第六个阶段:开始建立了自己的盈利模式,也开始学会空仓,学会继续持有热点获利个股,获利幅度开始超过大盘水平;

第七个阶段:能判断大盘走势,准确把握个股,属于高手水平;

第八个阶段:超高手水平;他不关心什么图形走势,也不去分析什么主力庄家。他只看见市场里到处都是钱,只需要花点时间把钱捡起来

第九个阶段:牛人,直接发声就能影响股市,我等望尘莫及~

China Issues Statement on Yuan Exchange Rate Flexibility

The following is the full statement by the People’s Bank of China on yuan flexibility.

Further Reform the RMB Exchange Rate Regime and Enhance the RMB Exchange Rate Flexibility

In view of the recent economic situation and financial market developments at home and abroad, and the balance of payments (BOP) situation in China, the People´s Bank of China has decided to proceed further with reform of the RMB exchange rate regime and to enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.

Starting from July 21, 2005, China has moved into a managed floating exchange rate regime based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies. Since then, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime has been making steady progress, producing the anticipated results and playing a positive role.

Link

source: wsj

Next Week's Game Plan

'Mad Money' Recap: Next Week's Game Plan (Final)

"Next week we're getting an earnings season sneak preview, so pay attention," Jim Cramer told the viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Friday.
He said while the markets may be range bound between Dow 9,700 and Dow 10,700 based on the global economic data of the day, next week's earnings will highlight where the mini-bull markets can be found.

Link

source: thestreet

Friday, June 18, 2010

Nice Article

The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street This Week: June 18

Link

Market Summary 6/18/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/18/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10450.64
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2309.80
S&P 500 Close – 1117.51

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/18/10

Gold Close - 1257.20
Oil Close – 77.18
Natural Gas – 5.01

The Dow rises 16 points ,The major indexes ended the week above their 200-day moving averages, which is one of the most important support levels in the markets.

The gains came as the price of gold hit a new high. The euro finished at $1.239, up slightly from Thursday. Gold, energy and financial stocks were the strongest sectors of the market.

Crude oil was a better performer than gold or stocks, Crude oil rose 39 cents to settle at $77.18 per barrel ,rising 4.6% on the week.

BP CEO hands off operations of the Gulf of Mexico oil spill, heading back to London.

Market breadth was mixed. On the NY Stock Exchange, winners beat losers eight to seven on volume of 1.77 billion shares.

Thursday, June 17, 2010

Are Markets Finally Betting On A New American Natural Gas Age?

Are Markets Finally Betting On A New American Natural Gas Age?


If you haven't been following the natural gas market, perhaps you should be.

The long-battered commodity has finally gone on a run in the last month, perhaps due to the oil spill, and the hope for future natural gas investments.

Source:  Link

Now Stocks Are 48% Overvalued, Says Smithers

We've been pointing out for a while that, based on a cyclically adjusted PE ratio, the stock market is significantly overvalued--say, 20% or so.

To arrive at this view, we use a "fair value" estimate for the S&P 500 of about 900, which is close to the one used by fund manager Jeremy Grantham, fund manager John Hussman, and others. This compares to the S&P's current level of about 1100.

But now Andrew Smithers, an excellent economist based in London, is telling us that we're way too optimistic, that fair value for the S&P 500 is actually in the 700-750 range. Smithers, therefore, thinks the stock market is about 50% overvalued.

Source: Link

Market Summary 6/17/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/17/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10434.17
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2307.16
S&P 500 Close – 1116.04

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/17/10

Gold Close - 1242.90
Oil Close – 76.61
Natural Gas – 5.17

The stock market managed a slender gain Thursday after traders shook off a pair of disappointing economic reports. The Dow gains 25 points even as jobless claims rise.

Traders began buying late in the session, Short covering is probably a big reason.

Apple hits a new high of $272.90 after the company reported pre-selling more than 600,000 iPhone 4's on Monday.

Crude oil closed down 88 cents to 76.79 a barrel. Gold ends near a record, Gold settled up $18.20 to $1,248.70 an ounce.

A manufacturing report shows a smaller-than-expected gain.

BP's CEO is in the hot seat on Capital Hill, He treated as “public enemy” No1. Shares of BP fell 0.4% to $31.71.

Market breadth was negative. On the NY Stock Exchange, losers beat winners by a narrow margin on volume of 1.16 billion shares. Trading Volumn is light!

Futures trading suggests stocks will open slightly lower on Friday.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/18/10

President Obama in Ohio.

Facebook COO:"Email Is Probably Going Away"

Link Article


Only 11% of teens email each day, Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg told a conference crowd yesterday.

"Email is probably going away," she said.

"Going away" is a bit much – email remains an important tool for business – but Sheryl is right that people are now spending more time on social networks than email.

Wednesday, June 16, 2010

Smart Natural Gas Plays

With natural gas moving over $5 after sitting in the doldrums for most of the year, our focus is really heating up on this fuel of the future. There are a lot of reasons for this continued move higher in the price of natty and a lot of interesting opportunities to look at in the space. Let's have a look at both.

Link Article

Source: TheStreet

Can the Latest Low-Volume Rally Last?

ONE OF THE CHERISHED TENETS OF TECHNICAL ANALYSIS is that trading volume confirms price moves. But as the latter half of the rally from the March 2009 low shows, markets can rally without large volume when conditions are right.

Fast forward to this month, and once again we find stock prices starting to go up without broad participation by the public.
....
Investors should not assume that last year's performance changed the rules.

Source: Barron's

Market Summary 6/16/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/16/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10409.06
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2305.93
S&P 500 Close – 1114.61

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/16/10

Gold Close - 1229.30
Oil Close – 77.12
Natural Gas – 4.99

Stocks recovered from deep losses Wednesday and finished a choppy session near the previous day's closing levels as investors considered mixed economic news and BP's agreement to establish a $20 billion escrow fund and cancel its quarterly dividend.

The fund will finance repairing damages from the Gulf spill. BP will suspend its dividend for the rest of 2010.

Housing starts slump as tax credit expires.

FedEx gives a weak earnings forecast, The company says increased costs will weigh on earnings,FedEx fell $4.94, or 6 percent, to $78.07.

Crude oil closed up 77 cents to $77.67 a barrel today.

Today ‘s Volume was quite light: 1.2 billion shares on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and 1.9 billion shares on Nasdaq.

Futures trading suggests stock will open down slightly on Thursday!

Economic Calendar Data - 6/17/10
Initial Claims - 8:30am EST

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

BP Investors Watch and Wait for an Exit

Source: Link Article


BP is one of the most widely held stocks in the world, to judge from the volume of emails and comments I’ve been getting recently. That adds another big category of people adversely affected by the massive oil spill.

BP (BP: 31.40, +0.73, +2.38%) stock has been gyrating wildly. In three trading days over the last week, the stock has finished down 16%, up 12% and down 10%. Since the spill, shares have lost half their value.
....
Source: smartmoney

President Obama Oval Office Gulf Speech

Here is the transcript of the speech
source: businessinsider

Market Summary 6/15/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/15/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10404.77
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2305.88
S&P 500 Close – 1115.23

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/15/10

Gold Close - 1232.90
Oil Close – 76.50
Natural Gas – 5.03

The Dow closed at 10405 today, as the stocks broad gains above 200 day moving average. The Dow , s&p500, and Nasdaq have all closed above their 200 day moving average.

More good news on industrials came from the New York Federal Reserve, which said regional manufacturing expanded for an 11th straight month in June.

Fitch downgrades BP’s debt rating for the 2nd time this month, leveling it at a level just above junk status. The spill estimate is boosted.

Best Buy misses estimates, but the company reiterated its fiscal 2011 forecast. The report brought concerns that consumers will cut spending and hurt a U.S. recovery. Best Buy fell $2.49, or 6.1 percent, to $38.56.

Crude oil settled up 2.4% to $76.94 a barrel.

Watch out for profit-taking on Wednesday. Futures trading suggests a lower open.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/16/10
Housing Starts - 8:30am EST
Building Permits - 8:30am EST
PPI - 8:30am EST
Crude Inventories - 10:30am EST

10 Front Pages From Around The World

quick link to this page:

10 Front Pages From Around The World

Monday, June 14, 2010

A Buy Signal for Stocks Is Emerging

Heavy buying of bearish puts is setting the stage for a market bottom.

PUT-CALL RATIOS ARE excellent contrary sentiment indicators, especially at market extremes. The rationale behind that statement is fairly simple: as a trend in the market perpetuates, option speculators tend to follow the trend.

Source: Barron's

Here's 4 Reasons To Expect A Recession

source: Link Article


John Hussman: Here's 4 Reasons To Expect A Recession

John Hussman sees increasing odds of a renewed or double dip recession. He cites his “Aunt Minnie” criteria for the potential downturn. The only leg missing in the criteria is a downturn in the ISM, which is likely at the top of its range as its a diffusion index.

Market Summary 6/14/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/14/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10190.89
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2243.96
S&P 500 Close – 1089.63

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/14/10

Gold Close - 1223.30
Oil Close – 75.12
Natural Gas – 5.03

Stocks gave up gains by the close Monday after Moody's downgraded Greece's debt rating, reminding investors that Europe's economic woes aren't going away anytime soon.

The Dow ends with 20-points loss, up 118 points at one time today!

Crude oil settled up $1.34 to $75.12 a barrel. Crude had been as high as $75.99.

On Tuesday, Best Buy (BBY) will report on fiscal-first-quarter earnings before market open.

Futures trading suggests the market will open modestly higher.

Sunday, June 13, 2010

Next Week's Economic Report

Monday: No significant economic reports.

Tuesday: Government data on import /export prices is due before the market opens, though the report is usually not a market mover. Best Buy (BBY) releases quarterly results and a report on manufacturing activity in New York comes out before the opening bell.

After the market opens, the Treasury Department will release a report on foreign purchases of U.S. debt.

Wednesday: The government will release a report on housing starts and building permits before the market opens.
A report on capacity utilization and industrial production comes out after the opening bell.
The government's weekly oil inventory report also is due Wednesday morning
FedEx (FDX) is scheduled to report quarterly results in the morning.
In the evening, Ben Bernanke will deliver a speech in NY on proposed financial reform.

Thursday: The weekly jobless claims report from the Dep. of Labor is due in the morning.

The consumer price index, the government's main inflation gauge, is expected to show that prices fell 0.2% in May after falling 0.1% the month before.
After the market opens, reports on leading economic indicators and manufacturing in Philadelphia are scheduled to come out.
In the afternoon, BP CEO Tony Hayward is scheduled to testify before a House committee.

Friday: The Labor Department will release a report on state unemployment levels at 10 a.m. ET

Buffett Charity Auction Fetches Record $2.6 Million

SAN FRANCISCO—The 11th annual charity auction of lunch with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. CEO Warren Buffett brought in more than $2.6 million on Friday night.

That tally broke the previous record, set in 2008, of $2.1 million by investor Zhao Danyang.

Proceeds from the auction, conducted online by eBay Inc., benefit the Glide Foundation, a charity serving the homeless in San Francisco's Tenderloin district.Mr.....

Source: wsj

Who will be the winner ?

Profit From Walgreen-CVS Dispute

WALGREEN CO. ANNOUNCED on Monday that it would no longer participate in CVS Caremark's prescription benefit network plan, setting off a dispute that has hurt both stocks.

Each company stands to lose business if customers in CVS Caremark's (ticker: CVS) prescription benefit network can no longer get drugs from Walgreen (ticker: WAG).

Still, we think CVS Caremark has more to lose in this dust-up.

According to Morningstar, only about 15% of CVS Caremark's pharmacy network customers fill prescriptions at CVS drugstores, leaving the company reliant on other ...

source:Barron's

Saturday, June 12, 2010

The biggest loser: Banks

Source: CNNMoney

How to lose money: Buy banks

Bank stocks have been among the biggest losers during the market's slump of the past month or so. Despite that, many professional investors still don't think banks have hit bottom just yet.

Concerns about the impact of looming Wall Street reform, fraud charges against Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500), and the sovereign debt crisis in Europe are all big headaches that have yet to go away.

That's why some investors think bank stocks are still too expensive.
.....

BP:Board Will Agree Dividend Suspension Monday,Says BBC

The rumor BP (BP) will cut its dividend, which built overnight with a WSJ article and then was enhanced this morning by a Times of London piece, gained further support this afternoon as BBC business editor Robert Peston said BP’s board of directors are to meet Monday to formally decide on suspension of the dividend. Any announcement wouldn’t happen until after a Wednesday meeting with President Obama, Peston believes.

“In practice, Monday’s discussion at newly instituted weekly meetings of the board will be about when to suspend the payments, how long to suspend the payments, and what to do with the billions of dollars that would be saved and not paid to shareholders,” Peston is quoted as saying.

It’s unclear how exactly Peston came to this conclusion. There are no sources cited, even anonymously, for this tip.

BP shares, meantime, have held onto gains, rising 86 cents, or 2.6%, to $33.63.

source:Barrons' Blog

Friday, June 11, 2010

Market Summary 6/11/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/11/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10211.07 +38.54
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2243.60 +24.89
S&P 500 Close – 1091.60 +4.76

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/11/10

Gold Close - 1228.90 +6.20
Oil Close – 73.78 -1.28
Natural Gas – 4.79

The Dow added 39 points today! Stocks turned up during the last hour of trade Friday after a choppy session, erasing deep losses triggered by a disappointing retail sales report, and the Dow posted its first weekly gain in a month.

Stocks sank at Friday's open as investor digested an unexpected 1.2% drop May retail sales, but trimmed those losses following a report that showed a rise in consumer confidence.

Despite two straight days of gains, analysts said the markets will remain choppy, as Europe's debt crisis, BP's oil mess, stubbornly high unemployment and recent volatility weigh on stocks.

Crude oil was down $1.46 to $74.02 a barrel. Gold settled at $1,230.20 an ounce, up $8.

Financial stocks were among the weaker performers as negotiations began on the final form of a financial regulation bill.

10 Cash-Rich Companies With No Debt

10 Cash-Rich Companies With No Debt

Stock quotes in this article: AAPL , GOOG , TXN , WCG , PNRA , CTSH , BBBY

Nice Article

The Five Dumbest Things on Wall Street: June 11

Stock quotes in this article : NWY, GS, CVS,WAG, S, T

Thursday, June 10, 2010

Market Summary 6/10/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/10/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10172.53 +273.28
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2218.71 +31.86
S&P 500 Close – 1086.84 +31.15

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/10/10

Gold Close - 1221.10 +0.30
Oil Close – 75.15 -0.33
Natural Gas – 4.70

The Dow rose 273 points to 10172, by a sharp boost in Chinese exports and a strengthening euro and US jobs data!

Today's move higher was so sharp that 29 of the 30 Dow stocks were higher,excecp CSCO! After the close, DELL shares were down 1.8% to $12.84 after the company said it was unable to file its report for the April quarter on time

Higher crude oil boosts energy shares. BP is a big winner after hitting a 14-year low Wednesday.

Crude was up $1.10, or 1.5%, to $75.48 a barrel. Gold was down $7.70 to $1,222.20 per ounce. The euro was quoted at $1.213, up 1.2% from Wednesday's $1.198.

Futures trading suggests a flat open on Friday. The Dell disclosure won't cheer anyone.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/11/10
U.S. retail sales for May. 8:30 a.m.
U.S. consumer sentiment for June. 10 a.m.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

Market Summary 6/09/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/09/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 9899.25 -40.73
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2158.85 -11.72
S&P 500 Close – 1055.6 -6.31

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/09/10

Gold Close - 1231.60 +3.10
Oil Close – 74.34 -0.04
Natural Gas – 4.67

The Dow closed at 9899 today, as the market rallied in the morning and fells part during the afternoon. Some expert said it's looking more and more like we're in a bear market, rather than just a correction.

The blue chips fall 41 on profit-taking and worries that BP may not survive.BP shares were down 15.8% in New York to $29.20, their lowest level since the summer of 1996.

Bernanke and the Fed are cautiously optimistic on the economy. Consumer and business spending picked up, the job market improved slightly and inflation remained in check.

U.S. light crude oil for July delivery climbed $2.39, or 3.3%, to settle at $74.38 a barrel.

After closing at a record high Tuesday, gold for August delivery slipped $15.50, or 1.3%, to settle at $1,228.50 an ounce.

Market breadth turned mixed. On the NY Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.7 billion shares.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/10/10
Initial Claims - 8:30am EST

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Actually, Information Wants To Be Paid For

LINK Article

Market Summary 6/08/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/08/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 9939.98 +123.49
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2170.57 -3.33
S&P 500 Close – 1062.00 -0.00

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/08/10

Gold Close - 1237.50 -6.50
Oil Close – 72.23 +0.24
Natural Gas – 4.80

Dow gained 123 points today, as the market was volatile but bounced.

Gold continues to shine. Gold for July delivery settled at $1,244, breaking the old record of $1,242.70, set on May 12.
Crude oil settled up 55 cents to $71.99 a barrel.

Futures trading suggests stocks will open modestly lower on Wednesday.

Market breadth was mixed. On the NY Stock Exchange, winners beat losers three to two on volume of 1.6 billion shares.

Asian stock markets were mostly lower Wednesday despite overnight gains on Wall Street, dragged down by lingering worries over Europe's debt crisis and brewing labor strife in China.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/9/10

Wholesale Inventories - 10am EST
Crude Inventories - 10:30am EST

Monday, June 7, 2010

Wall Street is getting ready for BP to go burst

It seems unthinkable, even now, that the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico could bring down the mighty BP. But investment bankers get paid to think the unthinkable — and that is just what they are doing.

The idea that BP might one day file for bankruptcy, particularly as part of a merger that would enable it to cordon off its liabilities from the spill, is starting to percolate on Wall Street. Bankers and lawyers are already sizing up potential deals (and counting their potential fees).

source:NYtimes

All This Talk of a double-dip recession is almost certainly nosense

link article


All This Talk Of A Double-Dip Recession Is Almost Certainly Nonsense

Economists as a group, completely missed the oncoming credit crisis, recession, and market collapse. In the beginning of 2009, they did not discern the economic revival. They sure as hell missed the March 2009 market bottom and forthcoming 78% rally.

Now, with Q2 of 2010 coming to a close, many have begun chattering about a double dip recession. A Google search for double dip recession generates 3,470 recent news items.

While I suggest you ignore those forecasters who — repeatedly — got it wrong, let’s at least look at the data to see what has the dismal crowd all hot and bothered

Market Summary 6/07/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/07/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 9816.49 -115.48
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2173.90 -45.27
S&P 500 Close – 1050.47 -14.41

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/07/10

Gold Close - 1238.00 -1.30
Oil Close – 71.73 +0.29
Natural Gas – 4.92

Dow falls 115 points Monday, with the Dow and S&P 500 ending at 7-month lows, after the euro hit a fresh four-year low, adding to worries about the global economy.

Tech stocks fell back, Apple falls as investors see the iPhone facing more competition. BP sees progress on containing the big spill.

Crude oil was off 7 cents to $71.44. Natural gas rose 11.9 cents to $4.916 per million British thermal units.

The loss left many analysts and traders worried about more losses on Tuesday, but futures trading suggests a higher open.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/8/10

Dollar General to report quarterly results. Before market open.
Talbots to announce quarterly results. Before market open.

Sunday, June 6, 2010

Seven 5-Star Stocks from Berkshire's Latest Portfolio

Seven 5-Star Stocks from Berkshire's 03/31/10 Portfolio

1) Becton, Dickinson (BDX )

2) ExxonMobil (XOM )

3) General Electric (GE )

4) GlaxoSmithKline (GSK )

5) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ )

6) Lowe's (LOW )

7) Sanofi-Aventis (SNY )

Souce: morningstar

Next Week's Economic Report

Monday: The April consumer credit report is due in the afternoon, but it is not typically a market mover.

In the afternoon, Steve Jobs will deliver the keynote address at Apple's World Wide Developers Conference in SF.

In the evening,Ben Bernanke will answer questions about the economy at an event in Washington, D.C.

Tuesday: Fed. Board Governor Elizabeth A. Duke speaks at a conference in Florida about the aftermath of the financial crisis.

Wednesday: The government's April wholesale inventories and weekly crude oil inventories reports are due in the morning. The Fed's "beige book" reading on the nation's 12 economic districts is due in the afternoon.

Bernanke testifies at the House Committee on the budget regarding economic and financial conditions.

He also speaks in Richmond, Va., at a forum on the labor market.

Members of the House of Representatives and the Senate hold the first meeting on reconciling the Wall Street reform bill.

Thursday: The weekly jobless claims report from the Department of Labor is due in the morning.

The April trade balance is due to be released by the government in the morning.

Friday: The May retail sales report from the Commerce Department .

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index. The report is due after the start of trading.

The April reading on business inventories, also from the government, is due out after the start of trading.

Investor Fund Flows Have Never Been This Bearish Since Lehman

Investor Fund Flows Have Never Been This Bearish Since Lehman Collapsed

Latest fund flow data from the Investment Company Institute shows just how panicked investors became in May.

As shown below in red, we've seen enormous outflows from U.S. equities, with $13.4 billion fleeing in the week of May 26th alone. Bond fund flows, shown in gray, have continued to see net new money.


LINK

Saturday, June 5, 2010

Worst S&P Decline on Jobs Day Since 1998;Down Next Week?

Today was the worst decline on record going back to 1998 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 following a monthly jobs report, observe our friends at Bespoke Investment Group this afternoon.

The S&P fell 38 points, or 3.44%, to close at 1,064.88.

According to Bespoke’s data, on a day when the S&P falls following a jobs report, whether the report was better or worse than expected, the average return on the S&P the following week is a decline of 0.75%.

But take heart: the average gain in the month following the jobs day decline is 1.19%!

Source: Barron's Blog

Natural Gas Spikes; Long , Hot Summer Ahead

Natural gas was one of the standout performers in a very ugly market today, specifically the U.S. Natural Gas Fund ETF (UNG), which rose 17 cents, or 2%, to $8.18 amidst the Dow’s 324-point drop.

Bloomberg’s Moming Zhou notes that natural gas futures rose to a 14-week high, up 11 cents, or 2.3%, at $4.797 per million British thermal units, for the biggest weekly gain of the year, on forecasts for a hot, hot summer and above-average demand for gas for power.

By comparison, July contracts for light sweet crude oil fell $3.52 to $71.09 per barrel, and the U.S. Oil Fund ETF (USO) fell $1.58, or 4.6%, to $32.68.

source: Barron's Blog

BP Collected 6,077 Barrels Friday at Well

BP collected 6,077 barrels of oil on Friday, the first full day after a new containment cap was placed over the deepwater well in the Gulf of Mexico that has been leaking for more than six weeks, the company said early Saturday on its website.

The first daily estimate of oil collected indicates that possibly between half and one-third of the oil that is spewing from the BP-owned Macondo Well is being captured. Last week, scientists led by the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that between 12,000 and 19,000 barrels a day were gushing into the Gulf.

"Optimization continues and improvement in oil collection is expected over the next several days," BP said in the update.

......

source:wsj

Thursday, June 3, 2010

BP CEO Says Success of Leak Cap Will Be Clear in 12-24 Hours

LINK

BP has lowered a cap over a damaged Gulf of Mexico oil well, the U.S. Coast Guard said, in the latest attempt to control the worst oil spill in the country’s history.

...

BP will know in 12 to 24 hours whether the plan has succeeded in stanching the gushing crude, Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said earlier. “There’s always a risk as to whether it will be a success,” he told reporters in Houston. The cap will be used to divert oil to ships on the surface.

source:bloomberg

Market Summary 6/03/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/03/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10255.28 +5.74
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2303.03 +21.96
S&P 500 Close – 1102.83 +4.45

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/03/10

Gold Close - 1206.00 -2.30
Oil Close – 74.34 -0.27
Natural Gas – 4.70

Stocks managed gains Thursday following a choppy session in which investors mulled mixed economic news ahead of Friday's big monthly jobs report.

Tech stocks lead the market, but weakness in financial and metals stocks mutes overall gains ahead of Friday's big jobs report. The service sector expands, but factory orders rise less than expected.

Crude oil was up $1.75, or 2.4%, to $74.61 a barrel. Natural gas was up 6% to $4.69 per million British thermal units.

Futures trading suggests a flat open for stocks on Friday. But the jobs report will change all that.


Economic Calendar Data - 6/4/10
Employment Report - 8:30am EST
Unemployment Rate - 8:30am EST

Wednesday, June 2, 2010

Market Summary 6/02/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/02/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10249.54 +225.52
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2281.07 +58.74
S&P 500 Close – 1098.38 +27.67

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/02/10

Gold Close - 1222.00 +1.40
Oil Close – 73.62 +0.76
Natural Gas – 4.42

Dow up 226 points on Wednesday, fueled by a rebounding energy sector, as investors regained confidence following the previous session's huge sell-off.

Crude oil finished up 28 cents to $72.86 but was trading well above $73 in late in electronic trading. Natural gas added 4.1% to $4.424 per million British thermal units.

Tax credits boost home-sale contract signings. Auto sales beat estimates.

Futures trading suggests stocks could open slightly higher on Thursday.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/3/10

U.S. jobless claims, first-quarter productivity data. 8:30 a.m.
U.S. ADP employment data for May. 8:15 a.m.

Inside Wall Street: Against the Odds, BP Analysts Stand By the Stock

LINK

It seems hard to fathom, but Wall Street is staying bullish on British Petroleum (BP). Which raises the question: Are these analysts overly optimistic about how BP will survive the largest oil spill in U.S. history?

......

Despite the rising tide of public anger and hostility toward BP -- and the announcement on Tuesday by U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder that the government is opening a criminal probe into the spill -- most of the 17 analysts who follow the oil and petrochemicals giant continue to urge investors to buy its stock. And none recommend dumping it. Twelve of the analysts rate BP a buy, and five recommend holding it.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

We Are The World ( Music Video )

Market Summary 6/01/2010

Stock Market Closing Prices – 6/01/10

Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 10024.02 -112.61
Nasdaq Stock Close – 2222.33 -34.71
S&P 500 Close – 1070.71 -18.70

Commodities Closing Prices – 6/01/10

Gold Close - 1223.70 -1.10
Oil Close – 72.08 -0.50
Natural Gas – 4.23

The Dow fell 112 points, Better-than-expected readings on U.S. construction and manufacturing helped turn the tide in the morning. But the market sold off again heading into the close.

The sell-off comes after the government says it has started criminal and civil probes in the BP oil spill.

Crude oil fell $1.39 to $72.58 a barrel.

Semiconductor sales move higher, Hewlett-Packard plans to cut 9,000 jobs.

Perhaps Wednesday will be better. Futures trading suggests the U.S. stocks still open higher.

Economic Calendar Data - 6/2/10

Pending Home Sales - 10am EST
Crude Oil Inventories - 10:30am EST