美国联储局商量退市 股市要遇大麻烦？

美国联储局明天起一连两天举行议息会议，外界关注联储局在6月第二轮量化宽鬆（QE2）结束后的退市安排。彭博通讯社调查显示，多数分析员相信联储局不会在今夏立即减持美债，而是会透过到期债券回笼资金继续买债，市场人士形容，这意味联储局将进入「QE2.5」阶段。

联储局内部就QE2结束后怎麽办一直有不同意见，3月的会议纪录显示，部分与会者相信今年应收紧银根，但另一派认为美国经济仍然疲弱，不适宜收紧货币政 策。联储局主席伯南克（Ben Bernanke）本月较早前称商品价格高企对通胀可能只有「短暂」影响，上月亦曾表示将回笼资金继续投资美债是联储局退市工具之一。

彭博通讯社指出，市场人士预计联储局将在周三确认6月如期结束买债计划，但伯南克会继续将6000亿美元买债计划里到期国债的回笼资金重新投资于美债，维 持资产负债表规模。彭博上月访问了50名经济师，45人预期联储局将维持美债资产规模，当中16人预计将维持4至6个月，11人相信维持1至3个月，14 人相信维持7至9个月，4人预计超过9个月。

Brown Brothers Harriman固定收益关系管理及企业发展部门主管Jeffrey Schoenfeld指出，上述措施仍属量化宽鬆政策，他称之为QE2.5。达拉斯联邦储备银行前行长Robert McTeer月初接受内地和讯财经网站访问时亦预计，QE2结束后，联储局可能会进行QE2.5的措施。

自联储局2008年底开始向市场「泵水」以来，美股一直攀升，稍为回落的时期正是首轮量化宽鬆结束至QE2展开之间（见图）。

联储局去年11月推出QE2，开始6000亿美元买债计划，旨在压低利率，减低借贷成本以促进经济。虽然QE2成效成疑，但就连批评者亦担心，一旦QE2 结束，股市及商品市场可能出现大逆转。Optionsellers.com的资产经理James Cordier便说﹕「联储局将如走钢线，若QE就此结束，那麽便是政策大改变，市场将会翻转，联储局会加以避免。」

QE2.5只是退市三部曲的第一部。MKM Partners首席市场策略师Michael Darda相信，若美国在联储局停止再印钞买债后经济仍继续增长，联储局便会开始任由资产负债表上的美债到期，接才会开始减持资产或调高短期息率。他认 为，这最后一幕可能要在1年后才会发生.
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炒股界传奇：高手用这个方法8年增值34倍(ZT)

炒股不易，获利更难，“一赢二平七亏”现象便是炒股之难的真实写照。
虽然盈利概率只有一成，炒股十有八九要输，但毕竟还是有投资者赚了钱。而且，据说在民间就有不少高手深藏不露，无论是品种选择、时机把握，还是交易频率、进出节奏等，都有一套投资方法，他们乐此不疲，收益颇丰。
一直以来，我就想找一个这样的投资高手，作一次近距离的交流，看看这些年来他在复杂多变的资本市场里究竟取得了怎样的骄人战绩，以及在这些战绩背后有着怎样与众不同的投资故事，特别是在投资理念、方法、技巧、心态等方面有哪些值得普通投资者借鉴的地方。
通过一位在证券公司工作的朋友介绍，笔者终于如愿以偿。主人公学历不高，没有上过正规大学，只有一张自学经济管理专业毕业的文凭;他交易不多，每年只操作三五笔，涉及品种仅二三个，甚至因为上夜班连看盘的时间都难以保证。但他是个股市奇才，自2003年起连续8年保持盈利，即使是在指数暴跌的2008年也不例外，历年投入的4万元本金至去年年底已增至140多万元，翻了5番还多……他叫李兵(化名)，是浙江宁波某企业的一名普通工人。
一个周末的下午，李兵欣然接受了笔者的专访。
炒股奇迹：8年增值34倍
【笔者】：随着资本时代的悄然到来，投资股市的人越来越多，但在笔者所接触过的投资者中绝大多数出现了不同程度的亏损，即使获利，其盈利也非常有限，像你这样每年都能盈利，短短八年时间资产增值34倍的投资者十分罕见，能否作一具体介绍?
【李兵】：我1997年入市，从第一笔投资400股宇通客车开始，至2000年陆续投入本金约4万元。自2003年至今每年都保持了盈利。其中，2003年、2004年获利一倍以上，2005年盈利8%，2006年30%，2007年130%，2008年35%，2009年100%，2010 年70%。投入的4万元本金至去年年底已增至140多万元，累计上涨了34倍。

【评点】：单就每年盈利的幅度来看，在1亿多股民里，李兵的“战绩”恐不会排在最前列。但从每年都能盈利、8年累计增值34倍看，李兵绝对称得上股市奇才之一。多数投资者入市多年最终一无所获不是因为没有赚到钱，而是因为赚到的钱后来又还了回去，最终成了一场“零和游戏”。相比之下，持续盈利、积少成多这种看似不起眼的投资方法正是包括李兵在内的投资高手们能在股市里大获全胜的奥秘所在.
制胜秘笈：顺势而为
【笔者】：持续盈利是你这些年来能在股市取得巨大成功的关键。其实，许多投资者也都希望能像你那样，但问题是他们做不到的事你却做到了，其中的秘笈是什么?
【李兵】：概括起来8个字：尊重趋势，顺势而为。当股市趋势向上时一路持有，向下时不能补仓。如果在趋势向下时过早补仓就相当于“再次犯错”。因此，作为资金量非常有限的普通散户在炒股时千万不能不尊重趋势——股价一跌就补仓。其实，这方面我也曾走过弯路。记得我第一次大额投资买的是海信电器，当时从 12元多开始建仓，一跌就买、越跌越买，最后一次买入时价格已跌至6.5元。后来，海信电器跌到5.4元时实在撑不住了，只好清仓，结果亏了60%，教训极为深刻。从2003年开始能够持续盈利，主要也是得益于趋势交易，顺势而为，不与趋势作对。
在进行趋势交易时重点注意两点：一是不能追涨杀跌。因为追涨杀跌所带来的获利往往是极为短暂的，但导致的套牢却是永久的;二是不能完全依赖指数。如果说2008年之前指数与个股的关联性相对密切的话，那么进入2009年之后，随着大盘权重股的大量发行上市，这种关联性就弱化了，投资者要是再想依据指数炒股就难了(这里所说的指数是指综合指数)。所以，在进行趋势交易时，投资者不仅要参考综合指数的动向，更要观察分类指数的涨跌以及相互之间的关联性，还有股指期货的市场走势。只有把上述因素结合起来一并观察、分析、研究，才会有参考价值。
【评点】：揭开李兵这些年来取得巨大成功的神秘面纱不难发现，其成功的核心“密码”正在于做到了尊重趋势、顺势而为这八个字。这就如同坐电梯，有的人上上下下到最后从哪里来又回哪里去，有的甚至进入了“地下室”(亏损)，而李兵坐的电梯只上不下，收益随之水涨船高。做到了尊重趋势，顺势而为，相当于坐了部只上不下的电梯，想不盈利也难!

Stock Market: Looking Forward to Next Week !

Last Week (Week ending 04-Mar-11)The Dow ended up 0.1%, The SP500 and Nasdaq index each ended up 0.1%. Oil prices hit two year highs on the continued turmoil in Libya and the Middle East, while gold hit a record high. U.S. economic data continues to paint a picture of recovery as private employers hired more than 200,000 people in February.

The week ahead is not big in terms of quarterly earnings and even less so in terms of economic reports. So, the external forces -- especially Libya -- will dominate financial markets.
 

There was talk that the Obama administration should release crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to push oil prices lower. A release could drop oil prices for a short time. 

Crude oil has been pushed higher in recent weeks by political turmoil. This won't leave prices permanently higher, but resolution is required to bring prices back. The longer there is no resolution, the greater the damage to economies around the world. 

Here are the key earnings report for the coming week: 

Monday: Ciena and URBN

Tuesday: DKS　and　ＢＮＳ

Ｗednesday:  MVV, JAS, MCP

Thursday:  ARO and QUAD

Friday: ANN

A Quite Week For Economic Reports,

With Friday's jobs report out of the way, the economic reports tail off. The big reports  come at the end of next week.

Trade Balance for January, due Thursday from the Commerce Department. 

Retail sales, due Friday from the Commerce Department.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, due Friday. 

Stock Market: Looking Forward to Next Week !

The stock market fell 2% this past week.

What the past week really demonstrated is how easy it is for a panic in oil markets to spill over into the rest of the financial markets and the economy. Crude oil jumped 13.7% to $97.99 a barrel for the week, the biggest weekly gain since the week ending Feb. 27, 2009. The panic was all about Libya and the Middle East and what might happen if Libyan oil was entirely shut in. 

The Dow  ended the week down  2.1% to  12130.  The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% to 1320, with the Nasdaq off 1.9% to 2781. The losses were the first in three weeks for the indexes and the largest since early November.

Yet, for all that, all three indexes remain up nearly 5% for the year, still a very good start.

Earnings reports: Costco, Joy Global, Heinz, Staples
While all 30 Dow companies and most of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings, there are still some reports to watch. Here are some of the key reports due:

Monday: EIX, GGP and RST.

Tuesday: BMO, DPZ, and MDR.

Wednesday: Costco Wholesale, BJ and PETM.

Thursday: BUD, KR and WEN.

 Friday: ABR and HESAY.

The jobs report may be the week's big event 

The price of oil may be the most closely watched economic indicator next week. It will also color how jobs and other economic data that come next week is interpreted. 

The big report is obviously the Labor Department's on payroll employment and unemployment, due before financial markets open on Friday. The consensus estimate is for a gain of 179,000 and an unemployment rate of 9.1%.

Personal income, due Monday. 
Pending homes sales, due Monday. . 

Construction spending, due Tuesday. 
Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Index for February, due Tuesday. 
Motor vehicle sales, due Tuesday. 

Institute for Supply Management's Non-Manufacturing Index, due Thursday. 

 
Bernanke speaks before twice Congress. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify Tuesday and Wednesday, a requirement under the 1978 Full Employment Act -- better known as the Humphrey-Hawkins Act, which mandates the twice-yearly reports from the central bank. Bernanke will emphasize the slack in the economy and defend the Fed's  monetary policy against charges that it's stoking inflationary fires.

The Fed's Beige Book report, due Wednesday. 

Jobless claims, due Thursday. 

Stock Market: Looking Forward to Next Week !

The Market will close Monday for Presidents Day.

For the past week, The S&P 500 and Dow hit fresh two years high, while the Nasdaq hit a three-year high and is 30 points away from its 2007 high. Overall it was a slow week , with energy stocks acting as the primary driver of this week’s gain.

Next week, it’s the last big week of earnings season,  here are the earning reports to watch for:

Tuesday’s key reports:  Home Depot, Wal-mart, Macy’s and Hewlett-Packard

Wednesday’s key reports: Chico’s FAS, Dollar Tree, Lowe’s

Thursday’s key reports: General Motors, Target and Salesforce.com

Friday’s key report: JC Penny

Housing dominates the economic reports

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Housing Index, due Tuesday, is likely to show a third straight month of falling prices in 20 U.S. markets.

Consumer Confidence Index, due Tuesday from The Conference Board. The index reached its highest level since March 2008 and has risen for five months. Nomura Securities sees the optimism to persist in February and beyond.

Existing-home sales, due Wednesday from the National Association of Realtors. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted rate of about 5.2 million units, down slightly from December. A big question is how much the horrible storms affected business. Gains in the California market, which accounts for 10% of total U.S. home sales, will be offset by declines in other states.

Durable-goods orders, due Thursday from the Commerce Department. December was a crummy month. Many economists see a rebound in January. The key will be aircraft orders.

New-home sales, due Thursday from the Commerce Department. This will probably come in at 320,000 to 330,000 units annualized. If there are gains, don't get too excited. New-home sales are running at a third or less of their levels of 2006.

Gross domestic product for the fourth quarter of 2010, first revision. Due Friday from the Commerce Department. This measures the total of goods and services running through the economy. Its revisions are as important as the initial report because the data about the economy are more complete. The initial estimate was that the economy expanded at a 3.2% rate. IHS Global Insight sees the growth unchanged. Nomura Securities sees it growing to 3.5%.

Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Final estimate for February, due Friday.

Stock Market: Looking Forward to Next Week !

If Egypt's peaceful government change continues, stocks have a good chance to move higher. Earnings are due from Dell, Comcast, Deere and Nordstrom. But a big jump in the consumer price index could cause jitters.

In the meantime, here’s how things stand: The Dow ended the week with a 1.5% gain. The S&P 500 index added 1.4%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.45%. It was the 10^th weekly gain for the Dow in last weeks the ninth in the last 11 for the s&p 500 and the eighth in the last 11 for the Nasdaq.

A week of good earning ahead:

Monday: Masco (MAS), Walter Energy (WLT)

Tuesday: BHP Billiton,  DELL, FRT and CTL.

Wednesday: Comcast, Dean Foods, Deere, natural-gas producer DVN, data-storage manufacturer NTAP and graphics-chip maker NVDA.

Thursday: Oil-and-gas producer APA, Barrick Gold (ABX)and Nordstrom. 

Friday: Tire maker Bridgestone (BRDCF)and Campbell Soup (CPB).

The economy: Manufacturing, inflation and housing

The economic reports due next week include two important manufacturing indexes from the Federal Reserve banks of New York on Tuesday and Philadelphia and Thursday. Both indexes have been rising decently in the last year. The question is if the trend will continue. 

The inflation results will inflame the debate over the subject. The Labor Department issues its producer price index report on Wednesday and its consumer price index report on Thursday. The headline numbers for both should show jumps in food and energy costs. Some will blame the Fed's monetary policy. 

Housing starts and building permits for January will come out Wednesday. Expect both to show seasonally adjusted annual rates of 500,000 to 550,000. You should hope for lower starts so the excess supply of homes can get sopped up. Weather may depress starts. 

Building permits may drop. December permits were up 15% as builders in New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania wanted to get permits before stricter building codes took effect. IHS Global Insight sees permits dropping 17% as a payback for December.

Stock Market: Looking Forward to Next Week !

The Dow finished higher every day this past week, ending the week at 12092, up 2.3% and at their higher level since June 2008. The S&P 500 , up 4 days out of 5, added 2.7% for the week to 1311, and the Nasdaq  ended the week up 3.1% to 2769.

In a word, amazing , given how many people believe the market is about to stage a major pullback.

Earning will drive the market

Next week is fat on earnings,  and that’s what the market will trade on, assuming Egype doesn’t spiral out of control. It’s fairly light on important economic reports. Here’s how the week shapes.

Monday: Humana(HUM), Imperal Sugar, HAS, SYY.

Tuesday: Toyota(TM), Belo(BLO) and Disney.

Wednesday: Coca-Cola, Allstate(ALL), and Cisco Systems(CSCO).

Thursday: Kraft Foods(KFT) and Cheesecake Factory(CAKE). 

Friday: Discovery Holdings (DISCA) and Pilgrim’s Pride(PPC).

There are some factors that are giving stocks a reason to move higher and should be on display next week. One is that consumers are gaining confidence in the economy and are increasingly willing to spend – to the benefit of  Walt Disney (DIS) and Polo Ralph Lauren(RL).

Another is that Industrial America is alive and Investing.

A third is that global growth means rising prices for commodities, to the benefit of such companies as Imperial Sugar (IPSU).

The down side of rising commodity prices is that others will face challenges. We’re talking Coca-Cola(KO), Molson Coors(TAP) and Penera Bread (PNRA).

 A Quick Week For the Economic Reports

The week following the report on payroll employment and unemployment is always light on market-moving events. 

The Federal Reserve's Consumer Credit report on Monday will measure whether consumers are willing to take on much debt. That will dovetail with the University of Michigan's first cut of consumer confidence in February.  That report comes out Friday. 

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the new House Budget Committee on Thursday. The Fed is not expected to change its tune on its policy orientation, as Bernanke indicated in his recent news conference. Indeed, the recent readings on the employment market have been somewhat ambiguous.