Friday, December 31, 2010
REIT's Rise Isn't Over
Top-performing real-estate fund managers at Neuberger Berman say 2011 should be another good year for commercial real estate.
Brian Jones and Steve Shigekawa grew up on opposite coasts, but they share the same view of the country's commercial real-estate market: It's headed higher.
.....
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Stocks Still Rule
"When it comes to growing your wealth, the stock market isn't just your best option. It's the only game in town," Jim Cramer told the viewers of his Mad Money TV show Thursday, as he tried to get investors to once again fall in love with the market.
Cramer said he understands many investors' disenchantment with the markets, especially after the financial crisis of 2008, when even the good stocks got pummeled. But for those considering parking their life savings in U.S. Treasury Bonds, Cramer said to think twice.
....
Sunday, December 26, 2010
Saturday, December 25, 2010
Stocks, oil rise in festive cheer
By By Natsuko Waki
PARIS (Reuters) - World stocks held near the previous day's two-year high on Friday while oil hit fresh two-year peaks after strong U.S. data this week encouraged investors to maintain their risk positions into 2011.
Thursday's U.S. data showing that demand for a range of long-lasting U.S. manufactured goods surged in November and consumer spending rose for a fifth straight month reinforced expectations for strong economic growth in the fourth quarter.
"We've had a good run, helped by quantitative easing and better economic data," said Bernard McAlinden, investment strategist at NCB Stockbrokers in Dublin. "We've broken out of ranges, and it can go higher in 2011."
The MSCI world equity index edged higher to just below Thursday's peak, which was its highest since September 2008, set just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers.
The index is up 9.6 percent this year.
Fund tracker EPFR said investor focus shifted from bonds to equities in the final weeks of 2010, with equity funds globally taking in a net $4.5 billion for the week ending December 22. Bond funds saw redemptions totaling $2.3 billion.
The Thomson Reuters global stock index dipped slightly, but the FTSEurofirst 300 index rose about 0.1 percent.
Ratings agency Fitch downgraded Portugal on Thursday, citing burgeoning debt levels and a tough financing environment, a move analysts said was largely expected by investors.
The downgrade puts Fitch's rating for Portugal on a par with Moody's A1 rating, but still two notches above that of Standard and Poor's A-minus.
Trading was very light, with markets closed in Germany, Italy, Spain, Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Greece, Austria, Hungary, and Iceland. U.S. markets were also closed to observe the Christmas holiday.
Emerging market stocks fell slightly.
U.S. crude oil rose more than 1 percent to $91.41 a barrel as unusually cold weather fueled demand and depleted supplies.
Snow and more frigid temperatures were predicted in parts of Europe over the weekend, threatening to prolong chaos at airlines and rail networks and further boost fuel demand.
The bund future fell 32 ticks.
The U.S. dollar fell less than 0.1 percent against a basket of major currencies, while the euro was mostly unchanged at $1.3114.
Sunday, December 19, 2010
Stock Market:Looking Forward to Next Week!
If you're a bull, you have to love this market. Stocks are up pretty nicely with just nine trading days left in the year.
The next week is a short week because of the Christmas holiday. The week after will be a full week of trading, but volume will be low because Wall Street players will head to the vocation.
There aren't many earnings reports, Including Adobe, Darden Restaurants, Nike and Bed, Bath & Beyond report results.
There are downsides to consider, starting with the national unemployment rate at 9.8%.
The price of oil is just below $90 a barrel. The average price of gasoline is near $3 a gallon; a big move above that level will have psychological effects that could hurt the travel, airline and, of course, auto industries.
Interest rates bottomed in October but are higher, and the housing business is dicey. Foreclosures are expected to accelerate next year.
The price of oil is just below $90 a barrel. The average price of gasoline is near $3 a gallon; a big move above that level will have psychological effects that could hurt the travel, airline and, of course, auto industries.
Interest rates bottomed in October but are higher, and the housing business is dicey. Foreclosures are expected to accelerate next year.
And there is Europe and its debt problems.
Sunday, December 12, 2010
Stock Market:Looking Forward to Next Week!
Next week, there are important economic reports and events coming up, including a Federal Reserve meeting and an important tax vote, plus earnings reports from the likes of BBY, HOV, FDX, GIS, ORCL and RIMM .
And this will be the last full week of trading before we get into the holiday season.
The results between now and New Year's may hint at what may happen in 2011.
The economic events start in a big way on Tuesday.
The big kahuna will be the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and monetary policy, due at 2:15 p.m. ET. The Fed has been highly criticized by China, Germany and other exporting countries because they fear the central bank's plan to buy in $600 billion in bonds by June will push the dollar lower, hurt their markets and cause inflation.
What the Fed will probably say is that it will complete the plan. It won't change interest rates. It will suggest that the economic recovery is proceeding, but joblessness remains a national crisis.
Due Next Week:
Retail sales for November, due Tuesday from the Commerce Department.
Producer Price Index for November, due Tuesday from the Labor Department.
Consumer Price Index for November, due Wednesday from the Labor Department.
Industrial production for November, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department.
Empire Manufacturing Survey and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index. Both for December. The first is due Wednesday from the New York Federal Reserve Bank; the latter comes Thursday.
The results between now and New Year's may hint at what may happen in 2011.
The economic events start in a big way on Tuesday.
The big kahuna will be the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates and monetary policy, due at 2:15 p.m. ET. The Fed has been highly criticized by China, Germany and other exporting countries because they fear the central bank's plan to buy in $600 billion in bonds by June will push the dollar lower, hurt their markets and cause inflation.
What the Fed will probably say is that it will complete the plan. It won't change interest rates. It will suggest that the economic recovery is proceeding, but joblessness remains a national crisis.
Due Next Week:
Retail sales for November, due Tuesday from the Commerce Department.
Producer Price Index for November, due Tuesday from the Labor Department.
Consumer Price Index for November, due Wednesday from the Labor Department.
Industrial production for November, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department.
Empire Manufacturing Survey and Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank's manufacturing index. Both for December. The first is due Wednesday from the New York Federal Reserve Bank; the latter comes Thursday.
Initial jobless claims, due Thursday from the Labor Department.
Housing starts, due Thursday from the Commerce Department.
Housing starts, due Thursday from the Commerce Department.
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Sunday, November 28, 2010
11月29日-12月3日重要财经数据
周一(11月29日):
日本10月零售销售
英国10月消费信贷
欧元区11月经济景气指数
欧元区11月消费者信心指数 www.6park.com
日本10月零售销售
英国10月消费信贷
欧元区11月经济景气指数
欧元区11月消费者信心指数 www.6park.com
周二(11月30日):
日本10月失业率
德国11月失业率
欧元区10月失业率
欧元区11月消费者物价指数初值
欧洲央行行长特里谢在欧洲议会经济和货币事务委员会会议上发表证词
加拿大第三季度GDP
美国11月纽约企业前景指数
美国11月芝加哥采购经理人指数 www.6park.com
日本10月失业率
德国11月失业率
欧元区10月失业率
欧元区11月消费者物价指数初值
欧洲央行行长特里谢在欧洲议会经济和货币事务委员会会议上发表证词
加拿大第三季度GDP
美国11月纽约企业前景指数
美国11月芝加哥采购经理人指数 www.6park.com
周三(12月1日):
澳大利亚第三季度GDP
中国11月官方采购经理人指数
英国11月CIPS/RBS制造业采购经理人指数
德国11月Markit/BME制造业采购经理人指数终值
欧元区 Markit11月制造业采购经理人指数终值
美国第三季度非农业单位劳动力成本终值
美国11月ISM制造业采购经理人指数 www.6park.com
澳大利亚第三季度GDP
中国11月官方采购经理人指数
英国11月CIPS/RBS制造业采购经理人指数
德国11月Markit/BME制造业采购经理人指数终值
欧元区 Markit11月制造业采购经理人指数终值
美国第三季度非农业单位劳动力成本终值
美国11月ISM制造业采购经理人指数 www.6park.com
周四(12月2日):
瑞士第三季度GDP
欧元区10月生产者物价指数
欧元区第三季度GDP修正值
欧洲央行管理委员会会议、宣布利率决议
美国上周初请失业金人数
美国10月NAR成屋签约销售指数
美联储公布经济褐皮书 www.6park.com
瑞士第三季度GDP
欧元区10月生产者物价指数
欧元区第三季度GDP修正值
欧洲央行管理委员会会议、宣布利率决议
美国上周初请失业金人数
美国10月NAR成屋签约销售指数
美联储公布经济褐皮书 www.6park.com
周五(12月3日):
英国11月服务业采购经理人指数
德国10月实际零售销售
欧元区Markit11月服务业采购经理人指数终值
欧元区10月零售销售
欧洲央行行长特里谢在欧美记者俱乐部召开简报会
加拿大11月失业率
美国11月非农就业人口变动
美国11月失业率
美国10月工厂订单
美国11月ISM非制造业指数
英国11月服务业采购经理人指数
德国10月实际零售销售
欧元区Markit11月服务业采购经理人指数终值
欧元区10月零售销售
欧洲央行行长特里谢在欧美记者俱乐部召开简报会
加拿大11月失业率
美国11月非农就业人口变动
美国11月失业率
美国10月工厂订单
美国11月ISM非制造业指数
Sunday, November 21, 2010
Stock Market:Looking Forward to Next Week!
Due to Thanksgiving, it's a short week. But earnings are due from Hewlett-Packard(Monday,After the close), J.Crew(Tuesday) Deere and Tiffany(Wednesday).
The week includes key reports on gross domestic product, housing and jobless claims. Tuesday will bring the minutes from the Federal Reserve's Nov. 2-3 meeting. This will help investors gauge the disagreements about the central bank's controversial $600 billion plan to support the economy.
What to look forward to next week:
Earnings should continue to be positive.
Will the economic reports confirm the good cheer?Maybe
Here's what else is due:
Tuesday: Third-quarter gross domestic product, a second estimate. ( expects 2.2%. )
Existing-home sales for October.
Wednesday: Durable-goods orders, from the Commerce Department. Expect a decent gain, 0.5% or better, fueled largely by aircraft orders.
Personal income spending and income for October, from the Commerce Department. (most analysts expect a gain.)
Initial jobless claims, from the Labor Department.This is the closest indicator that tells where the job market is. The past two weekly reports have been the seasonally adjusted claims rate at under 440,000. Another such report will be a decent signal that the recovery is picking up steam.
The week includes key reports on gross domestic product, housing and jobless claims. Tuesday will bring the minutes from the Federal Reserve's Nov. 2-3 meeting. This will help investors gauge the disagreements about the central bank's controversial $600 billion plan to support the economy.
What to look forward to next week:
Earnings should continue to be positive.
Will the economic reports confirm the good cheer?Maybe
Here's what else is due:
Tuesday: Third-quarter gross domestic product, a second estimate. ( expects 2.2%. )
Existing-home sales for October.
Wednesday: Durable-goods orders, from the Commerce Department. Expect a decent gain, 0.5% or better, fueled largely by aircraft orders.
Personal income spending and income for October, from the Commerce Department. (most analysts expect a gain.)
Initial jobless claims, from the Labor Department.This is the closest indicator that tells where the job market is. The past two weekly reports have been the seasonally adjusted claims rate at under 440,000. Another such report will be a decent signal that the recovery is picking up steam.
New-home sales for October, from the Commerce Department. ( Until the foreclosures are sold off, don't expect much improvement.)
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold
Warren Buffett is an investing icon, and when he talks about the stock market, individual investors and Wall Street insiders alike take notice. But perhaps Buffett’s most controversial investment advice regards gold prices. Gold bullion, gold miners and gold ETFs simply have no place in Warren Buffett’s portfolio. And to hear Buffett tell it, gold should have no place in yours, either.
So why does Warren Buffett hate gold so much? Well, the famous value investor has been pretty clear on this. In a word, gold is useless.
....
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
World primary energy demand
Global demand for energy will increase by 36% between 2008 and 2035, according to the International Energy Agency’s latest forecasts. Emerging economies will account for almost all of this increase (93%). In China, which overtook America last year to become the world’s largest energy user, demand is projected to increase by 75% over this period. Fossil fuels will still be the dominant source of energy in 2035, though their share in the energy mix will fall, while that of renewable energy sources and nuclear power will rise. The demand for coal and oil in the mostly rich members of the OECD will fall between 2008 and 2035—as will their share in world energy demand, from 44% to 33%.
Link
Link
Sunday, November 14, 2010
Saturday, November 13, 2010
Stock Market:Looking Forward to Next Week!
Next week, in fact, a huge week for retailers, with reports due from
Nordstrom, Wal-Mart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s.
Plus, there are a number of important economic reports scheduled. And let us not forget that Congress will return from the election break, and there may be a short but probably intense debate on whether or how much to extend the Bush tax cuts.
The big report comes Monday morning from the Commerce Department: retail sales. Most analysts are looking for a 0.7% month-to-month gain. A bigger report will give the market a big boost.
The next biggest reports are the Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index reports, due Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. All sorts of commodities are sharply higher this year. The question is how fast are those increase filtering to producers and consumers.
Next are the manufacturing reports from New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserve banks, due Monday and Thursday, respectively. These have shown evidence of a slowdown.
Leading economic indicators, due Thursday from The Conference Board, should show an increase because of the big stock market rally.
Initial jobless claims, also due Thursday from the Labor Department, could really excite the markets if the seasonally adjusted number comes in at 435,000 or lower.
Normally, housing starts and building permits, due Wednesday from the Commerce Department, would get close scrutiny. The numbers will be weak. Foreclosures won't get out of the way.
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Monday, November 8, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Saturday, November 6, 2010
Stock Market:Looking Forward to Next Week!
But there are important earnings to consider, from Cisco, Walt Disney, Macy's and NVIDIA.
The most important economic report will be Wednesday's report on oil inventories and Thursday's report on initial jobless claims. Friday brings the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.
Stocks will be affected all week by commodity prices. These, in turn, will be affected by the dollar.
As the dollar has fallen, gold, silver, copper and crude oil have moved higher.
Gold could well top $1,400 this week for the first time, and Goldman Sachs says it could hit $1,650 an ounce within the next year.
Crude oil ended the week at $86.85 a barrel, and there's talk it will hit $90 next week and perhaps $100 a barrel.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Trading Discipline
- Don’t forget old support and resistance levels.
- If …. Then system.
如果市场符合原先的预期,则保持原有的交易部位 ---- 否则出场。
- Stop --- Always use them.
- Consider options.
- Intra-day technicals are important.
- Pace trades to market environment.
- Locals – never forget them.
- Indicators – the more the better.
- Never trade in the belief the market is wrong.
- Examine the market’s reaction to the fundamentals.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Saturday, October 30, 2010
Tuesday, October 26, 2010
Market Summary 10/26/2010
Stock Market Closing Prices – 10/26/2010
Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 11169.46 +5.41
Nasdaq - 2497.29 +6.44
S&P 500 Close - 1185.64 +0.02
Commodities Closing Prices – 10/26/10
Gold Close - 1338.00
Oil Close – 82.43
Natural Gas – 3.33
The Dow closed up 5 points to 11169 today, as stock market traded slightly higher.
The problem was that higher raw-material costs and a weak economy combined to produce disappointing earnings from US Steel(X), Cummins (CMI) and Kimberly-Clark (KMB). However, Ford (F) reported a better–than-expected earning report, Shares were up 1.5% to $14.36.
The dollar moves higher. Crude oil settled up 3 cents to $82.44 a barrel. Gold settled down 30 cents to $1,338.60 an ounce.
Oct. 27, 2010 – Wednesday
Procter & Gamble to announce quarterly results before market open.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Advantages of Tax-Free CEFs Yielding Over 5%
With so much uncertainty in the stock market, and with the possibility of tax increases on the horizon, investors have been allocating funds into tax-free bonds (municipal bonds), directly and through tax-free income closed-end funds. Tax-free closed-end funds, or CEFs, have several advantages over investing in municipal bonds directly.
Many of these CEFs have yields of 5% or more, such as the Blackrock Apex Municipal Fund (APX), which sells at a discount to net asset value, uses almost no leverage and yields 5.7%. The Nuveen New York Dividend Advantage Municipal Fund 2 (NXK) has a yield of 5.5%, is currently trading at a discount to NAV and has about 26.5% leverage, much lower than the average leverage of 34.7% for all the CEFs. The Nuveen Investment Quality Municipal Fund (NQM) yields 6.3%, utilizes about 29% leverage and trades at a slight discount.
Market Summary 10/25/2010
Stock Market Closing Prices – 10/25/2010
Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 11164.05 +31.49
Nasdaq - 2490.85 +11.46
S&P 500 Close - 1185.62 +2.54
Commodities Closing Prices – 10/25/10
Gold Close - 1341.20
Oil Close – 82.31
Natural Gas – 3.32
The Dow closed up 31 points to 11164 today, as stock market rallied with a better-than-expected report on existing-home sales and peace among the G-20 nations over currency rates.
Stocks finished higher today, but a big opening jump faded as the day wore on. Financial shares were a drag on the market in part because of worries about the foreclosure mess and profit-taking after a strong performance last week.
The G-20 meeting did nothing for the dollar, which has been lower against major currencies today, helping metals prices move higher. Gold settled up $13.80 to $1,338.90 an ounce. Crude oil settled up 83 cents to $82.52.
Oct. 26, 2010 – Tuesday
DuPont to release details on quarterly results before market open.
Ford Motor to report quarterly results before market open.
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Next Week's economic report
Monday: The National Association of Realtors will release its monthly report on existing home sales, which economists polled by Briefing.com expect rose to an annual rate of 4.25 million in September from 4.13 million the previous month.
Amgen (AMGN), Lorillard (LO) and Texas Instruments (TXN).
Amgen (AMGN), Lorillard (LO) and Texas Instruments (TXN).
Tuesday: The Case-Shiller 20-City index of home prices in major metropolitan areas for August is due shortly after the market opens. Economists expect a 2% jump after the previous month's 3.2% gain.
At 10 a.m. ET, the Conference Board will release a reading on consumer confidence for October. The index is expected to have ticked up to 49 from 48.5 in September.
Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Cummins (CMI), DuPont, U.S. Steel (X) and Waddell & Reed Financial (WDR).
Wednesday: Before the start of trade, the Commerce Department will release its report on orders for durable goods, which are items meant to last three years or more. Economists polled by Briefing.com predicted the number of durable orders increased by 1.7% in September after a 1.3% drop the previous month.
Allstate (ALL), auto-parts maker Borg-Warner (BWA), cable operator Comcast (CWCSA), ConocoPhillips, Panera Bread,Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia (MSO), Procter & Gamble and Whirlpool.
Thursday: The Department of Labor will release weekly jobless claims figures before the start of trade. The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment is expected to have hit 455,000, from 452,000 the previous week.
Before the opening bell, 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Exxon Mobil (XOM,Fortune 500) and Motorola (MOT, Fortune 500) will report earnings.
Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) will release its earnings data after the closing bell.
Friday: The first reading on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter is due before the start of trading. GDP likely grew at a 2% annualized rate, according to estimates, after growing at a 1.7% annualized rate in the second quarter.
The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, is due shortly after the start of trading for the month of October. Analysts expect the index fell to 57.5 from 60.4 in September. Any index reading over 50 indicates expansion.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for April is also due after the start of trade. The index is expected to have inched up to 68 in October from 67.9 the previous month.
Chevron (CVX), Merck (MRK), Estee Lauder (EL), Ruth's Hospitality Group. Merck will be closely watched for what it says about growth and its drug pipeline. Chevron will sketch in the global energy market.
Big Boost From Dollar Decline
0.5 percentage point: The potential boost in annual U.S. economic growth from the dollar’s decline since August 27.
As finance ministers from the Group of 20 developed and developing nations meet in Seoul in an effort to avert a currency war, it’s helpful to recognize the temptation they face. A little move in an exchange rate can have a big impact on a country’s growth.
Consider the recent fall in the dollar. Since August 27, when Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signaled the central bank was likely to pump more dollars into the economy, the greenback’s value has fallen about 4.8% against the currencies of U.S. trading partners (data through October 15). Given the historical behavior of U.S. exports and imports, a sustained move of that magnitude should shrink the U.S. trade deficit by nearly $140 billion over the next two years. That’s the equivalent of an added 0.5 percentage point of economic growth in each year.
Week Ahead: Market to Cruise as Bigger Events Loom Ahead
Lacking any big surprises, the markets may seem to be on cruise control in the coming week, as investors await the U.S. mid-term election and the Fed's November meeting.
Big oil joins the long list of companies reporting earnings, as a third of the S&P 500 report in the week ahead. Exxon Mobil, Ford, Microsoft, Merck, andProcter and Gamble are among those on deck. There is also a heavy calendar of economic reports, dominated by housing numbers but also including the important first look at third quarter GDP on Friday.
Friday, October 22, 2010
Warren Buffett: Forget gold, buy stocks
...
Okay, so gold is not a screaming buy to Buffett. What should a typical upper-middle-class person in the U.S. buy to prepare for retirement?
"Equities," Buffett answers without a moment's hesitation.
...
Market Summary 10/22/2010
Stock Market Closing Prices – 10/22/2010
Dow ( DJIA ) Close - 11132.56 -14.01
Nasdaq - 2479.39 +19.72
S&P 500 Close - 1183.08 +2.82
Commodities Closing Prices – 10/22/10
Gold Close - 1324.40
Oil Close – 81.69
Natural Gas – 3.32
The Dow closed down 14 points to 11133 today, as stock market rallied with mixed earning reports.
Trading volume was light today as Wall Street awaited the results of this weekend's meeting of G-20 finance ministers -- in addition, there's the combination of the November elections and the Nov. 2-3 Fed meeting.
The dollar was higher for most of the day. Gold settled down 50 cents to $1,325.10 an ounce. Gold was down 3.4% on the week. Crude oil, however, settled up $1.13 to $81.69 a barrel.
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